TVgasm Picks The Oscars 2005

It’s that time of year again. The Academy Awards. The best of the best of Hollywood Gather at the Kodak Theater to recognize the achievements in all things relating to motion pictures. As for the rest of us, we simply try to sneak into good parties that have free booze. TVgasm hopes to liveblog this year’s Awards (which take place Sunday, February 27th), but liveblogging is no fun if there is no speculation before hand. Normally that speculation is good for nothing other than bragging rights, but this year the Official Site of the 77th Academy Awards is sponsoring a “Predict the Winners” giveaway. Yes, you have to sign up for an ABC.com account, but you do have the chance to win plasma TV, so maybe it’s worth it. If you are unsure who to pick for your winners, the TVgasm writers give you a little bit of help after the jump.

Best Picture The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways

B-Side – Who Should Win: Million Dollar Baby, Who Will Win: The Aviator. Okay, let’s settle something. The Aviator is junk. It really is. The movie is nearly three hours long, but it feels like six. Just because Scorsese and Miramax are behind this epic doesn’t mean it’s any good. As for Sideways, maybe if I were a repressed 47 year old whose dreams of spending a civilized week in wine country will only be realized by Paul Giamatti, then maybe I might vote for this movie. But since I haven’t bought a corvette and an earring, I’m putting my endorsement behind Million Dollar Baby, which was, by the way, amazing. Cut to me trying to maintain composure for five minutes in the theater lobby.

madeyoulaugh – Finding Neverland (should win), The Aviator (will win)

m_ruv – The Aviator. Oscar voters LOVE films with lengthy people-peeing-in-jars interludes.

J-Unit – Although it loathes me to say so, The Aviator will win. I just don’t get how you can make such an incomplete biography. Maybe the special edition DVD will show how Howard spent the last 15-20 years of his life – hooked on pain killers and holed up in Vegas. Now that is a story I would be interested in.

Best Director Martin scorsese (The Aviator), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Alexander Payne (Sideways), Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

B-side – Who Should Win: Clint Eastwood, Who Will Win: Martin Scorsese. Well, Martin Scorsese hasn’t won before, but who cares? All flash and no substance does not warrant a statue, despite what Harvey Weinstein has to say about that. Alexander Payne did a nice job, but once again, I’m siding with Clint Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby – a totally understated but evocative piece of work.

madeyoulaugh – Clint Eastwood(should win), Taylor Hackford(will win)

m_ruv – Martin Scorsese. The academy’s been waiting to shoot this load for quite some time now, so get some big, big towels.

J-Unit – Mystic River got totally jobbed last year, and Clint Eastwood is going to have to suffer two years in a row of losing the award he deserves to win. Martin scorsese will win and with his conscience finally clean, will go on to make more of the movies he always wanted to. He’ll start with Casino 2 and the First Temptation of Christ.

Best Actor Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland), Leonardo Dicaprio (The Aviator), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Jamie Foxx (Ray)

B-side – Who Will/Should Win: Jamie Foxx I didn’t see Ray. But I’m not even going to try to be contrarian about it. Give Jamie Foxx the Oscar. Still, props to Clint Eastwood. Anti-props to Leonardo DiCaprio for sounding too much like Will Forte’s impersonation of George Bush.

madeyoulaugh – Johnny Depp (should win), Jamie Foxx (will win)

m_ruv – Jamie Foxx. Yay blindness and heroin!

J-Unit – Ray is too much of a feel good story and Jamie Foxx so thoroughly defined the character, that it will be a huge upset if he loses.

Best Actress Annette Bening (Being Julia), Catalina Sandina Moreno (Maria Full Of Grace), Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake), Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby), Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind)

B-side – Who Should Win: Hilary Swank, Who Will Win: Hilary Swank. I don’t know why everyone is jizzing over Annette Bening. Then again, I haven’t seen the movie. I like to talk out of my ass. I vote for Hilary Swank.

madeyoulaugh – Hilary Swank(will win), Kate Winslet (Should win)

m_ruv – Hilary Swank. Though Annette was gracious when Hilary beat her in 1999, she’s a shrew at heart, so I’m predicting a live-TV meltdown.

J-Unit – Of course it’s Hilary Swank. Hot women who play tough, mannish characters never lose. Witness: Hilary Swank (Boys Don’t Cry) and Charlize Theron (Monster).

Best Supporting Actor Alan Alda (The Aviator), Thomas Haden Church (Sideways), Jamie Foxx (Collateral), Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby), Clive Owen (Closer)

B-side – Who Should Win: Thomas Hayden Church, Who Will Win: Clive Owen. Not feeling so excited by this category. Alan Alda was solid in The Aviator, but his performance was a little overrated. Morgan Freeman was fantastic in a quiet role, but Thomas Hayden Church was the real surprise. Then again, the Academy never met a Brit it couldn’t reward (paging Jim Broadbent. Wait, who?). Maybe Clive Owen will steal the show.

madeyoulaugh – Alan Alda (should win), Morgan Freeman (could win), Clive Owen (probably will win)

m_ruv – Morgan Freeman. If anything, he should get it just for being the world’s only black guy with freckles.

J-Unit – Alan Alda will be the forgotten performance among the hype that is the Aviator. Thomas Haden Church will win because Paul Giomatti got looked over.

Best Supporting Actress Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), Laura Linney (Kinsey), Virginia Madsen (Sideways), Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda), Natalie Portman (Closer)

B-side – Who Should Win: somebody, Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Hmmm… This category is kind of a toss up. I sort of don’t care about any of these actresses. The usually solid Cate Blanchett was about a hair away from being a drag queen in The Aviator; so I guess that will pass as “a revelation”. Virginia Madsen is fairly overrated, but let’s give her the Oscar anyway, if only to reward her previously overlooked work in “Zombie High” and “Candyman”.

madeyoulaugh – Virginia Madsen (will win), Sophie Okonedo(should win), Natalie Portman(mmmmmmm)

m_ruv – Cate Blanchett. I wonder whether they’ll pronounce it BLANchett or blanCHETT. Make up your GODDAMN MIND.

J-Unit – Supporting Actress is where the Academy likes to get all crazy (remember when Mira Sorvino won?). I like Laura Linney in this category, and maybe people will stop mistaking he for Holly Hunter when she wins.

Best Original Screenplay The Aviator (John Logan), Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind (Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth), Hotel Rwanda (Terry George, Keir Pearson), The Incredibles (Brad Bird), Vera Drake (Mike Leigh)

B-side – Who Should Win: Charlie Kauffman, Who Will Win: John Logan (The Aviator). I was not in the camp that Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was amazing, but hell, the screenplay is. That any human can direct us through such a labyrinth of dream sequences is outstanding. If Aviator wins, I might just punch someone. Or at least sneer passive-aggressively at the TV.

madeyoulaugh – All deserving. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind(but this should and I hope does win), Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles

J-Unit – These writing categories are something I always have no clue on. I enjoyed Eternal Sunshine Of the Spotless Mind and think it will win.

Best Adapted Screenplay Before Sunset (Richard Linklater, Kim Krizan, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke), Finding Neverland (David Magee), Million Dollar Baby (Paul Haggis), The Motorcylce Diaries (Jose Rivera), Sideways (Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor)

B-side – Who Should Win: Paul Haggis (Million Dollar Baby), Who Will Win: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor (Sideways). This will be Sideways’ consolation prize, and you know, I wouldn’t be too upset by that. Alexander Payne is a talented writer. It’s not his fault that his film became ridiculously overhyped. But if it were my choice, I’d go for Million Dollar Baby.

madeyoulaugh – Finding Neverland (should win), Million Dollar Baby(will win)

J-Unit – Never undersestimate how much this town loves communists. The Motorcycle Diaries wins.

Best Animated Feature - The Incredibles, Shark Tale, Shrek 2

B-Side – The Incredibles deserves to win Best Animated Film, and in my book, the movie was cruelly overlooked in the Best Picture race.

madeyoulaugh – The Incredibles (should win)(will win)

m_ruv – The Incredibles. Anything featuring the folksy yet perspicacious voice talent of Craig T. Nelson is a winner in my book.

J-Unit – The Incredibles is going to win, but if The Aviator and scorsese are shut out, maybe the Academy will have pity and gives this to Shark Tale as sort of a tertiary consolation.

As you may notice, our list is not complete. We left off a few categories, but if we told you all of the winners, it wouldn’t make the game any fun, right? If you don’t want to enter the contest, or if you just want to display your picks and brag about how right you were later, we created a thread in the TVgasm Forums especially for that purpose. Good luck, and make sure to check TVgasm the day of the show.