What Are The Odds? Survivor Edition

Survivor

By admin | Friday, December 15, 2006 | 11:54 am | 4 Comments

probst_bodog12-15If you haven’t yet watched last night’s episode of Survivor, LOOK NO FURTHER. This post contains spoilers and I don’t want to be responsible for ruining a great hour of television. That being said, it is almost finale time, and it is always fun speculating on who is going to win. When it comes to speculation, there’s nothing better than a good Sportsbook. Why? Because the people taking bets have to be able to cover those bets, so they take these things very seriously. Look for B-sides recap later today, but until then, feel free to take a look at the odds for the remaining contestants after the jump. And just in case you missed it, SPOILERS AHEAD.

Thanks to the folks at Bodog.net for giving us something to talk about.If you saw last night’s episode or don’t care about spoilers, Parvati was eliminated. Not very strange, but I think it was really stupid to leave Adam there since he is the biggest threat to win an immunity challenge and if he were to go up against Yul or Ozzie, I think there would be enough of his old friends and backstabbed players to give him the win.

What do the odds makers say? Right now, Sundra has the lowest shot at winning, with the odds 7-1. I think this is about right. I don’t think any of her tribe would vote her out before Adam, but once it gets to the final four, she hasn’t done enough scheming to keep herself in the game. The next person on the list is Adam, at 6-1, which reflects his ability to win immunity and stay in the game. Beck comes in at 4-1 because Ozzy and Yul won’t get rid of her before Adam and Sundra.

That leaves us with Ozzy and Yul, who have odds at 1-1 and 5-9, which means they basically have an equal chance. Yul’s chances are slightly better, I believe, because he was seen as the leader of his tribe, and Ozzy was seen as an asshole to a lot of people. Yul is a lot like Terry, but Yul actually has the ability to scheme. Although Terry had Aras competing with him last year, Ozzy is much more the equal to Yul, and I think this season is still up in the air.

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4 Comments

  1. 1
    Ash
    Posted December 15, 2006 at 12:06 pm

    So I live in the NW where all the storms were last night, and I had NO POWER during the episode! Luckily, my Mom recorded it so I drove an hour to get the tape and watch it this morning…
    I’m not sure about voting Parvati out, it really just depends on what the challenges are from now on, which they obviously have no way of predicting. I really like Yul, but think Ozzy is deserving of winning as well. I would LOVE to see them in the final two as I think it would be the first time where it’s not obvious who the jury will vote for. On the episode someone (I think Yul) mentioned that Ozzy is seen as an individual player by the other tribes, so he may have more favor when it comes to the jury, which I’m not really sure about. Anyways, Adam sucks, I hope he gets voted off the finale episode first!

  2. 2
    nerrawllehctim
    Posted December 15, 2006 at 1:57 pm

    That’s wrong. I think Ozzy is more like Terry. He can also be like Gary and Tom.

  3. 3
    pupkick
    Posted December 15, 2006 at 2:16 pm

    What sucks about Sundra (and even the other girl to some extent) is that they are just votes, riding the proverbial coat tails. Nothing is worse than a coat tail rider winning. Its happened too many times.

  4. 4
    zoopy
    Posted December 16, 2006 at 11:54 am

    > Terry had Aras competing with him last year, Ozzy is much more the equal to Yul,

    Um, not really. How many immunity challenges has Yul own?

    It’s all about the endgame now. It’s curious because the competitors don’t know the rules of the endgame.

    Yul’s has greatest odds (even odds!) because (a) he has 100% chance of getting to final 3, and (b) he’s been diplomatic to everyone on the jury, not pissed anyone off. I don’t anyone has had this game so locked up in F6.

    Ozzy has to win the next two IC to make it into the final 3. Once there, his lack of connection with people will hurt him.

    Adam’s chances are not marginal because he’s the man in the middle, rather than his immunity threat. Or he could be if he played it right (appeal to Ozzy/Sundra to vote Becky off). Which is why Yul went against Parvati – she has balance/swimming skills AND she at least has the brains to try scheming.

    Becky’s chances are poor because even if she makes it to final 3, she’s not going to get much love from the jury (which two others can she beat?).

    Sundra’s are better as she seems more personable. But she will have to beat Becky/Ozzy to get to the F3.

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