What the hell just happened? I pretty much agree with everything you said. This sucks.

Dreamz had almost convinced me that he's a smart player, until he totally screwed up in the last five minutes. He even wrote down "Mechelle" on his vote, heh.

I don't think I have ever been so upset after an episode. I totally thought that if they weren't allowed to strategize that they should have come straight to Tribal Council and voted. What was done with Alex was so unfair. Also, I think Lisi is the first person in Survivor history who looked worse when she came out to be on the jury!

Everyone was in agreeance (except for Alex and Ed) that the order was to be Boo, then Stacy. It's not that I was rooting for Michelle (even though I was), it was that leaving Stacy in the game makes no sense for Dreamz at all, whether it's at ten, nine, or otherwise. Mookie's already tipped that hand by voting for her anyway, so if there were going to be fallout, it would happen anyway, so they might as well have gone all out and done it.

Michelle was not the safer choice, which is what your statements are based on; Dreamz alienates the Cassanrdra block by eliminating her. Voting Stacy out leaves his options open; it won't destroy his alliance with Alex because Alex and Ed have no other options. Voting out Michelle closes doors that voting out Stacy does not. It's not a smart move on his part, period.

AHHH I was so dissapointed that Michelle got voted off. She was cute and one of my favorites on the show! I was so pissed off at dreamz too, after all his talk of voting off stacy and he didn't do it wtf! I can't stand stacy either, hopefully she will be kicked off next.

He doesn't want to necessarily align himself with the Cassandra block; he wants to leave both doors open. And he discussed strategy with Yau and Cassandra around the fire, so that's out. He wants to ensure a majority when he gets to the final five, not put himself in a minority of two over three; leaving Stacy in keeps him in the group of two, and relying on athletic ability should be a last resort. Alex and Ed don't have many other allies, so eliminating Stacy and bringing in Cassandra or whomever ensures his majority, wherever he goes, eliminating the options of others within his alliance who will eventually be his adversaries. Getting rid of Stacy was the better option for him, I think, but I can see where you're coming from.

Overall, this has nothing to do with the fact that I like Michelle; I'm an advocate of doing whatever's necessary to win the game. Eventually, Earl is going to have to get rid of Yau, and vice versa, because they're threats to beat each other in a final vote. Even though I like them both, that's a completely separate thing from strategy, and keeping that dichotomy alive is key to maintaining perspective in a game; I'm not nicer to my friends when I play poker with them because I like them. To me, this is the same situation. If someone had done something strategic to gain an advantage, I would have viewed the Michelle boot as merited; however, nothing even remotely resembling strategy happened here. It was mass confusion. If it had been Lisi this week in the same situation, I would have made the same call; it would have taken away from the enjoyment of her boot, because it wouldn't have made any sense.

And I never said the word 'unfair'. Nothing's necessarily 'unfair' in reality TV, but it can be bullshit, which is what I think happened here. The fact that Mookie and Dreamz split the vote speaks for the fact that my main problem with this episode, which is the randomness. They're the each other's closest ally and would never vote differently if they had had the option. It came down to Jeff letting Alex say whatever he wanted and not giving the others the opportunity.

"Conversely, no one from that alliance will be returning to camp. How Dreamz voted would be completely unknown to the Cassandra block. I guarantee he hasn't alienated them voting off Michelle. In fact, they need him more now then before."

Also, this is not necessarily true. Yau and Earl will know that at least three of Alex, Mookie, Stacy and Dreamz had to have voted for Michelle for her to be booted, which means that without even being there, you can know that either Dreamz or Mookie did something contrary to an alliance which they have already pledged to be a part of. But they do need him more than ever, you're correct about that. Him, or Boo. Or both. We'll see.

Excellent recap and analysis of game progress. I completely agree that the dimwits pulled off a bonehead move by voting out Michelle, since they had all agreed on voting out Boo first and Stacy second. I might have agreed with them if Stacy had not been a part of the losing crew, but she was.

Like you, I'm partial to Earl and Yau, with Earl holding a slight edge over Yau. They should be able to hold things together, primarily because no one opposing them seems to have the ability to instill fear and indecision in the alliance. Ideally, IMHO, Earl, Yau, Cassandra and Alex will make up the final Four. Earl should be the new millionaire unless Yau makes a good power play at that point. Should those two make the finals it'll be difficult for the jury to decide between the intelligent, better fit younger man over the feeble (but lovable) nerd that survived to that point.

#13 was me. I...don't understand why it went anonymous.

great recap Schoonie! You make some excellent points about strategy. I really need to see where Boo is gonna go votewise, b/c right now he doesn't seem to be aligned with anyone (and he sees himself as an outsider) so he should be able to work his way into an alliance to make the numbers go one way or the other. The two indiv. idols in play should make for interesting TC in the future too. Knowing from the previews that Dreamz tells his supposed alliance about Mookie/Ed/Alex having an III should allow them to pull a fakeout where they make Mookie think they're voting for him so he plays it, but really vote for Alex or Ed instead. I HATE that they have to use it before the votes are read b/c it will only benefit the idol holder if they KNOW they're on the block. PLEASE GOD- do not let Yau tell anyone else that he has one. He and Earl need to keep that secret to themselves b/c it's already easy enough to figure out who on that tribe has been to Exile Island and could possibly have it.

one more point- I'm not saying Boo is a genius, but wouldn't it be smarter to be the the "fifth man" in an alliance with Earl and Yau b/c he would have a bigger physical advantage in any individual immunity challenges against that side than against Ed/Alex/Mookie? If Dreamz goes with them, he could still play third man with him and Cassandra to oust Earl and Yau.

ZB, good points. I think Dreamz/Boo is a wash as far as physical prowess is concerned, and Earl and Yau have shown themselves to be no slouches at the challenges themselves. But I'm thinking, if Earl and Yau use the idol properly, this point is moot, correct? Final five is the last time you can use it, so if they can hold onto it until then, it doesn't matter who the fifth is.

but Earl and Yau can only use it properly if they KNOW who is on the block. What if Yau thinks it's him and plays it when it's Earl that needs it? Granted- whoever has the individual immunity necklace will give someone a hint as to who might be up next. Maybe a good plan for Yau would be to act like he wants to go to draw the votes his way, and then use it to oust who he wants. Is it final five that the idol can be used through, or final four? There is a three person final again right?

It's through final five; there is a final three again this year, according to thefutoncritic press releases. Those questions re: the immunity idol are always lingering, the way it plays this year, which is I think what is going to make this season so interesting down the stretch. It's almost impossible to speculate; the last episode told us almost nothing about alliances that we didn't already know, so things can go either way. I'm really excited to see what happens, though!

i would have been o.k. with what happened IF everyone--not just the challenge losers--was given the opportunity to cast a vote at tribal council.

i ain't whinin'--survivor is all about luck, and the twists cut both ways (remember, the rock-solid alliance of yul, sundra, ozzie, and becky was forged by the 'swap meet' twist)--but michelle got SCREWED. coulda happened to anyone, but not to anyone nicer or less deserving of such a bad break. c'est la vie.

told ya last week not to put your eggs in dreamz's basket, schoonie. at least we know from the previews that his ineptitude (or genius, depending on your perspective) will tilt the scales back in favor of the PWDS. as for the exchange bet. probst and alex at tribal: dunno; seems like alex was given a chance no one else was given, but then again, michelle could and should have asserted herself. re: dreamz's vote: i was really surprised that he didn't take the chance to stick it to stacy, but it probably wasn't the worst decision. as schoonie observes above, dreamz kept his options open by appearing to still be operating under the influence of alex. his choice may piss of earl, yau, and cassandra, but they really have no choice but to accept him as their new fourth now that they've lost michelle. it was actually (and, likely, indirectly) a genius move, as dreamz would probably have been the first target of the PWDS alliance once they'd done away with the stud-boys. he's also likely set himself up solid as the 3rd or 4th in the asshole patrol alliance, as mookie will be on the outs for voting against stacy and hoarding the idol and the boys seem ready to cut stacy loose as soon as they can.

For those of you interested, this is also where you notice that Michelle is much hotter than Stacy.
You just noticed this? Maybe I originally factored in Michelle's personality and friendliness as well as Stasy's lack of personality and unfriendliness into the equation. Michelle has always been the prettier one to me....maybe it was all of Stasy's blah was overshadowed by Lisi's obnoxiousness.

His CBS bio says that he's a construction worker, so I have no idea where this came from.
Mayhaps there was a collective flashback to Survivor: Australian Outback and a certain Keith Famie?? That's all I can come up with...

which means that Dreamz voted for Michelle, inexplicably. I can think of no reason how this benefits him For real! Everyone else had a flashback, Dreamz found a crack rock at camp. WTF indeed.

You can't just say the word "strategy" a few times and pretend like you did the smartest possible thing.
Yeah, it's times like this when you would use the word "strategery"....

Now, let us never speak of this again.
A-F-MEN

This has to seriously be yin/yan balancing act on the part of CBS for doing us such a favor last week with the Lisi ousting.

I actually think it was the logical move for Dreamz to vote for Michelle; he has to hedge his bets with the Alex/Edgardo alliance (Boo before Stacy, which he stayed true to), and stay aligned with Cassandra and that crew (his telling that Mookie has the idol next week). Basically, Dreamz boxed Mookie in; he can't align himself with the Earl/Yauman/Cassandra alliance and he can't go back to Alex/Edgardo, since Alex knows that he voted to eliminate Stacy. Michelle was merely a soldier and a pawn; she didn't add to the strategy of the game in any way.

Either way, Cassandra and Dreamz is the poor man's version of Vecepia and Sean from Marquesas.

Damn you, Jeff Probst, for your stupid "Give me a reason to vote for..." line of questioning. Didn't that kind of defeat the purpose of the 'no time to strategize' idea? Why bother with a secret-ballot vote at all if you're going to pull that shit?

Michelle got screwed, but it wasn't by any of the other survivors; it was by the Probster. And what is her consolation prize? A trip to Jury House Hell where she will be forced to spend time with two of the most annoying people on the face of the planet. You deserved better, Michelle.

To me, it comes down to this: having Stacy in the game is detrimental to Dreamz; it creates a 3-2 alliance down the road that would not exist otherwise. Currently, having Michelle in the game doesn't hurt Dreamz in any way. It might down the road, but Stacy is a more direct threat.

I can see why he maybe hedged his bets, but the fact is that this vote was random and hurts the overall scope of a game like this, which is based on strategy and interpersonal relations, not a random drawing of rocks followed by no opportunity to correct for bad luck. If Mookie and Dreamz had strategized and decided to vote off Michelle, I would have been cool with it. Bummed, but cool. Watch the insider video, though: you can tell Dreamz has no idea what he's doing.

I can see where you're coming from, though: you think he's playing it safe. I think, however, that he's playing it random, because he had no idea and decided that it didn't matter either way. Maybe we'll find out next week. But, maybe not, because he will have had time to come up with an explanation by then, whether it was true at the time or not.

By the way, thanks for posting your differing opinions; I love to hear different perspectives than the one I maybe saw. Discussions like this are more fun than writing the recap itself. Thanks, guys.

Schoonie - I may be on the way to loving you like I did B-Side. Your recaps are great, and you are so positive and enthusiastic in the comments.

You're doing a great job with the social game.

xoxo

I'm actually not sure if the last vote was good or bad for Dreamz, but he's not going to win... like Michelle, he is a pawn for the alliance in power. Because I like Dreamz and ultimately Survivor is an individual game, I am going to believe he made an intelligent decision (a definite stretch, but one I am willing to make.)

i agree with you, schoonie--haven't seen the insider stuff, but i assumed dreamz had made a random-impulse decision. maybe he thought it was smart to go with alex; maybe he was overthinking (i know, probably an oxymoron when the pronoun refers to dreamz) and decided that his reasons for voting out stacy were solely personal rather than strategic (or strategeric, if you prefer). in either case, i still think his situation has improved. one added bonus is that stacy is now one of the few truly unlikable and unworthy players left in the game, and, without knowing that the final vote will be between three rather than two survivors, conventional wisdom says that the best strategy is to try to reach the end with someone people don't like and see as unworthy. edgardo apparently has a dark side, but we haven't seen that on the show--with the exception of his creepy promise to kill mookie if he didn't share the idol and calling anthony rocky's bitch (which, to be fair, wasn't exactly an inaccurate judgment), ed's gotten a relatively generous edit and doesn't seem to be disliked by anyone. alex has been the most capable and likable member of his alliance since the beginning. earl and yau are borderline heroic in their coolness and combined intellect. cassandra doesn't bring anything to the table in challenges, but she is very well liked and would be respected for reaching the finals despite her physical limitations. boo is kind of an idiot, but he seems to be very friendly and well-liked (they're out to get him because of his stamina and athleticism--he may be falling out of hammocks and poking himself in the eye all the time, but probst said in the preview show that boo is one of the best athletes ever to play survivor, and, physically, he's certainly the strongest player left in the game).

stacy is really the only person left in the game who would be easy for any of the others to beat in the finale. she's been bitchy, cruel and arrogant; she brings nothing to the challenges (she really owns the blame for the loss of the last immunity challenge when she couldn't figure out how to use the pole on that spiral notebook binding thingy); and she's one of only three players (the others being boo and cassandra) who spent the entire game pre-merge in the luxury camp. if i were in the game, not knowing that there'd be a final 3 rather than 2, she'd be the one i'd want to get to the finals with. only lisi would vote for her to win, and, since lisi is batshit crazy AND stupid, even she might not vote for her only friend.

i don't understand why someone (MICHELLE!!) didn't just say 'we should vote out the strongest player' and then point at alex. she did not know about mookie's idol, and, furthermore, mookie wouldn't have given it up, especially without edgardo around. i'm firmly in the yau-earl camp, but alex has played a smart game and should be considered a huge threat to win.

alex's only mistake (or stroke of bad luck, depending on how you look at it) is that he has allied himself from the beginning with the dumbest and least predictable people. that, and that stupid speech about the count of monte cristo.

That, and calling your alliance 'The Four Horsemen'. Dead to me!

Schoonie:

Great recaps - and good analysis on game strategy. Thanks for your thoughts on the "inner game" - and that takes some time (and pages). But they are greatly appreciated.

As an aside, I missed this episode live, so I recorded it. However, I checked the CBS web site for the recap (sorry - your's wasn't up yet), and from the recap on the "official" site - the last challenge was amazingly close.

However, after watching it on TIVO, it's clear it wasn't close at all. The Dreamz team didn't even have their final clue bag open when Yau-man and Earl were putting the puzzle pieces in the holder.

Dreamz is an idiot -- he is. He couldn't even spell Michelle and he doesn't even know his real name. I am sorry Dreamz-supporters, but you might be cheering on an eventual winner; but he is an idiot none-the-less.

Voting out Michelle didn't help him at all. Going back to camp, EVERYONE else will know that Michelle was voted out. Who was it that said they wouldn't know how the votes went? How would they not? I mean, for real? It isn't hard to add up the votes. It was two votes to three votes and one of the voters in the party of two isn't returning. Humm ... it is like a murder mystery with two characters (one being the corpse). Who did it?

Dreamz's only true ally in this game is Cassandra. Michelle wasn't the one who wouldn't help Dreamz make coffee. That was bitch Stacy and for some strange reason he kept her in the game.

I am prediting that Dreamz makes it to the finals; but it is NOT his intelligence that is getting him there. He is without-a-doubt one of the dumbest, most ignorant contestants in the history of Survivor.